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The Leading Indicators: A Short History of the Numbers That Rule Our World, by Zachary Karabell
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From Booklist
Karabell traces the history of “leading indicators,†economic statistics including unemployment; inflation; trade; consumer sentiment and spending; the stock market; housing; and Gross Domestic Product (briefly, total market value of all goods and services provided within a country during one year). Leading indicators were designed with limited goals “that describe one reality known as ‘the economy’ but not all reality known as ‘the world we live in.’†In the first half of the twentieth century, leading indicators measured industrial nation-states, while now they measure service-driven developed economies and emerging world industrial economies exporting the goods of multinational companies. Karabell recommends crafting tailored indicators for specific needs using the explosion of information in this era of “Big Data.†Governments should follow the example of the U.S. Federal Reserve in using wide-ranging data and numbers to enhance analysis, many well-run companies develop their own indicators for operational decisions, small businesses need specific indicators for corporate strategy, and individuals using smartphones should access data for creating indicators relating to personal goals. Challenging book. --Mary Whaley
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Review
“Zachary Karabell’s lively account, The Leading Indicators, is a terrific introduction to the range of statistics economists and governments use to address these questions.” (The New York Times)“Karabell offers an engaging account of the history of these indicators, and his explanation of their flaws is both readable and useful for non-economists trying to make sense of the barrage of numbers with which they're pelted on a regular basis.” (The Wall Street Journal)"[The Leading Indicators] demystifies a lot of current debates, explains its subject matter clearly and shows that the major published macroeconomic statistics are neither nonsense nor conspiracy. Most people could read this book with enjoyment and profit.” (Tyler Cowen The Washington Post)“How did we get to the era of Big Data? Karabell…mines little known tidbits in the history of economics to explain how individuals, companies, and countries came to rely on statistics like unemployment, inflation, and gross domestic product to describe the wealth of nations….In Karabell's hands economics is no longer ‘the dismal science.’ More storyteller than analyst here, he succeeds in livening up how ‘the economy’ came to be” (Publishers Weekly)“The Leading Indicators presents a potentially dry but important topic in an engaging manner, with wit and intelligence.” (The Cleveland Plain Dealer)“[A] lucid measurement of how the United States is faring. . . . Readers of this intelligent introduction to iconic economic indices will agree that Karabell makes an excellent case.” (Kirkus Reviews)“Our understanding of the economy is shaped by the numbers we use to measure it. In this engaging and subversive history, Zachary Karabell tells the story of how the indicators came to rule us, who invented them, what they actually tell us, and why we need to rethink all of them if we are to make sense of the world today.” (Justin Fox, Executive Editor, Harvard Business Review)“To any who treat the government’s economic data as if it were Holy Writ, Zachary Karabell’s book will come as a revelation. The Leading Indicators is the fast-paced story of the statistics that occupy far too large a part of our national consciousness. If you always suspected that the GDP was a snare and the CPI a delusion, Karabell’s narrative will tell you just how right you were.” (James Grant, Editor, Grant’s Interest Rate Observer)“We live in a world of Big Data, and we are led to believe that it contains the truth of our lives. But the numbers that we use to tally our wealth, our productivity, and our very worth as human beings are based not on any absolute truth, but on the shifting sands of politics, culture, and the personal quirks of our leaders. Zachary Karabell is a thinker who understands why economics isn't a hard science. The Leading Indicators is a much needed book about economic numbers that tells us how much—and how little—they ultimately mean.” (Rana Foroohar, Assistant Managing Editor, Time Magazine; Global Economic Analyst, CNN)“An enchanting primer on the origins and foibles of our economic numbers, marked with biting critique—and building toward the case for something new, different and adapted to the digital age.” (James K. Galbraith, Professor, UT-Austin, and author of Inequality and Instability)
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Product details
Hardcover: 304 pages
Publisher: Simon & Schuster; First Edition edition (February 11, 2014)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1451651201
ISBN-13: 978-1451651201
Product Dimensions:
6.1 x 1.1 x 9 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
3.9 out of 5 stars
41 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#798,420 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
The book's first 4-5 chapters are interesting economic history but it trails off into a more philosophical discussion of the best uses for the indicators.It also gets increasingly repetitive, as the author repeats he same examples to reinforce his point. For instance, unemployment only measures those looking for work and excludes those who aren't looking for work. Got it, so no need to repeat it at least three times.A good read but could have been better.
Very good book for anyone interested in what the economic indicators mean. I would highly recommend it to economics students, journalists, pundits, and politicians. If one becomes familiar with these statistics - GDP, unemployment rate, jobs created - it would not be possible candidates to make statements like Donald Trump's recent proclamation that the "true unemployment rate is around 25 percent". With some knowledge of what the statistics mean and how they are prepared, an informed citizenry could easily spot the demagoguery that pervades our political discourse. Buy this one!
Overall: I recommend this book to people who have an intermediate knowledge of economics or work in finance.This is one of the more thought-provoking books I've read in a while. Karabell does a good job explaining where and why important economic indicators (e.g. GDP and inflation) arose. How the idea of "the economy" is relatively new. He then goes on to explain whether they measure what we think they (ought) to measure. Each of these important indicators has its limits in describing our well-being, but at the same time that's not why they were created.I could have done without chapters 10 and the conclusion. But since it's not a terribly long book anyway, it wasn't too much of a waste of time.Overall, a recommend for econ nerds.
This is a bright, breezy and readable little volume that clearly shows how the sphere of human action that we now call "the economy" is largely a figment of the statistical imagination. It's reported on ad nauseam as though it is a real "thing", but it isn't; and fixation on its numerical measures has caused a deterioration in our thinking and in the quality of the lives we lead. These measures were devised as "indicators" to help us assess whether our policies were working or not; instead they have become a media fetish and a political stick with which to beat us into line. An excellent little volume; highly recommended!
The information in the book was very detailed and interesting, giving me a much improved understanding of "Leading Indicators" (e.g. unemployment rates, etc).. It was a little above my "pay grade" but well worth the effort.Thomas Roe Los Angeles.
An excellent summary of the collection of economic data and the subsequent application of statistics to the data. The author repeats his theme but it is worth repeating; the "leading indicators" that become the headline news do not and were never intended to fully describe a country, its citizens or its true (whatever that may be) economic well being.
The book lives up to its title: "The Leading Indicators: A Short History of the Numbers That Rule Our World". It covers the development and shortcomings of "headline" statistics such as gross domestic product, unemployment, and international trade. Readers will learn some eye-opening things, unless they already know the basics of what measures underlie these statistics and why many such statistics suffer from potentially misleading imperfections. For example, headline unemployment (U-3) doesn't include people who have given up looking for work; so if all workers lose their jobs and decide not to look for new jobs, the headline unemployment rate would fall to zero. The book does get a bit repetitive as it goes along, repeating its basic assertions over and over.Bottom line: If everyone read this book, we'd have a much more informed citizenry.
Stumbled on to this very excellent book about how these numbers have been established and how they have exceeded the importance we all have put on them. I recemmend this book to every political expert and to all citizens who await the next expectation awaited when the numbers are annouced. Do they really represent what we think they do?
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